Modelling land cover transitions: A solution to the problem of spatial dependence in data

Raster-based spatial land cover transition models (LCTMs) are widely used in landscape ecology. However, many LCTMs do not account for spatial dependence of the input data, which may artificially fragment the output spatial configuration. We demonstrate the consequences of ignoring spatial dependence, thus assigning probabilities randomly in space, using a simple LCTM. We ran the model from four different initial conditions with distinct spatial configurations and results indicated that, after 20 simulation steps, all of them converged towards the spatial configuration of the random data set. From an ecological perspective this is a serious problem because ecological data often exhibit distinct spatial configuration related to ecological processes. As a solution, we propose an approach (region approach) that accounts for spatial dependence of LCTM input data. Underlying spatial dependence was used to apply spatial bias to probability assignment within the model. As a case study we applied a region approach to a Vegetation Transition Model (VTM); a semi-Markovian model that simulates forest succession. The VTM was applied to approximately 500,000 ha of boreal forest in Ontario, at 1 ha pixel resolution. When the stochastic transition algorithms were applied without accounting for spatial dependence, spatial configuration of the output data became progressively more fragmented. When the VTM was applied using the region approach to account for spatial dependence output fragmentation was reduced. Accounting for spatial dependence in transition models will create more reliable output for analyzing spatial patterns and relating those patterns to ecological processes.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Determining spatial feed distribution in sea cage aquaculture using an aerial camera platform

Within this paper we describe an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) based method to estimate the spatial feed pellet distribution in salmon fish-cages and exploit it within a case study to determine the radial pellet distribution for different rotor spreaders and blower configurations. Compared to previously used methods, capturing pellets thrown from a rotary feed spreader in rows of Styrofoam boxes, the UAV based method is simpler and faster to setup and allows to cover a larger portion of the sea cage surface area. We compare results obtained with the Styrofoam box method with results we obtained by an automatic analysis of aerial videos taken by the UAV during feeding experiments. The employed method helps to gain insight into the spatial feed pellet distribution in full-scale salmon fish-cages where the feeding pipe and actual fixation of the spreader may influence the dynamic behaviour of the feeding system. This can also be seen as a step towards a continuous measuring of the feed pellet distribution, particularly in view of possible future feeding systems that may allow to adapt the feed pellet distribution to the actual fish distribution.     

基于GIS的农村居民点空间分布特征研究----以扶余市为例

科学认识乡村地域结构是全面推进农业农村现代化和乡村振兴的基础。本文以扶余市第二次土地调查调数据为基础，借助ArcGIS空间分析软件，运用规模分析、核密度估算、缓冲区分析，从用地规模、分布格局与土地利用条件方面探讨扶余市农村居民点地域分异特征。研究表明：扶余市以微、小型居民点居多，居民点数量随着规模的增大逐渐减少，居民点之间的距离差异较大，总体呈现大散居、小聚居，不均匀分散分布；农村居民点的平均核密度为0.4个/km2，空间布局呈东南部高密度集聚成片，向西逐渐密度降低，西部零散错落分布；居民点分布呈现较强的城镇指向性，交通用地对居民点有集聚的作用，河流对微型居民点和大型居民点有集聚吸引的功能。     

Geostatistical interpolation and aggregation of crop growth model outputs

Many crop growth models require daily meteorological data. Consequently, model simulations can be obtained only at a limited number of locations, i.e. at weather stations with long-term records of daily data. To estimate the potential crop production at country level, we present in this study a geostatistical approach for spatial interpolation and aggregation of crop growth model outputs. As case study, we interpolated, simulated and aggregated crop growth model outputs of sorghum and millet in West-Africa. We used crop growth model outputs to calibrate a linear regression model using environmental covariates as predictors. The spatial regression residuals were investigated for spatial correlation. The linear regression model and the spatial correlation of residuals together were used to predict theoretical crop yield at all locations using kriging with external drift. A spatial standard deviation comes along with this prediction, indicating the uncertainty of the prediction. In combination with land use data and country borders, we summed the crop yield predictions to determine an area total. With spatial stochastic simulation, we estimated the uncertainty of that total production potential as well as the spatial cumulative distribution function. We compared our results with the prevailing agro-ecological Climate Zones approach used for spatial aggregation. Linear regression could explain up to 70% of the spatial variation of the yield. In three out of four cases the regression residuals showed spatial correlation. The potential crop production per country according to the Climate Zones approach was in all countries and cases except one within the 95% prediction interval as obtained after yield aggregation. We concluded that the geostatistical approach can estimate a country’s crop production, including a quantification of uncertainty. In addition, we stress the importance of the use of geostatistics to create tools for crop modelling scientists to explore relationships between yields and spatial environmental variables and to assist policy makers with tangible results on yield gaps at multiple levels of spatial aggregation.     

河北省土壤有机质时空变化分析

采用BP神经网络和地统计方法,对1980~2009年间河北省耕地土壤有机质时空变化规律及影响因素进行对比分析。结果表明:河北省耕地土壤有机质具有西北高东南低的格局;随着时间的推移,有机质总体呈现上升趋势。1980年的低值区域到了2009年SOM上升变化明显,成为热点;北部坝上、西部太行山区及东部沿海地区到2009年SOM含量下降,成为冷点。分析表明,这种变化格局的形成与施用有机肥、实施秸秆还田等社会经济过程有关。本研究为预测有机质变化趋势、改善土壤质量、优化种植结构和耕地的可持续发展提供了一定依据。     

青铜峡风景资源评价

青铜古峡以十里长峡闻名于世，古有一百零八塔，今有青铜峡水利枢纽、天然鸟岛和牛首山寺庙群等景观吸引着海内外游客。文章在分析风景资源的基础上，结合青铜峡生态和旅游规划，对风景资源进行评价，并展望旅游前景。     

不同沙丘下梭梭(Haloxylon ammodendron)主根周围土壤特征的差异性研究

为探明沙漠建群种植物个体周围土壤养分和盐分空间分布及成因,对艾比湖湖区边缘三种类型沙丘下梭梭主根周围土壤含水量,电导率,全量养分和速效养分的变化进行了研究。结果表明:1固定性沙丘在表层(0~10 cm)处土壤含水量最小,流动性沙丘和半固定性沙丘在浅层(10~20 cm)处最小,以距离主根面3m处表现最为显著(P0.05)。2流动性沙丘和半固定性沙丘土壤有机质和全氮的结构性和空间自相关性均较弱,固定性沙丘养分(全量养分、速效养分)的结构性则较好。3三种沙丘土壤养分的空间分布不均,主要以条状和斑块状分布,整体上呈现出一定的集聚趋势,其中流动性沙丘和固定性沙丘集聚范围在0~2 m圈层,但纵向集聚范围中,流动性沙丘以浅层(10~20 cm),固定性沙丘以较深层(20~40cm)出现集聚,形成"肥岛"。4流动性沙丘土壤电导率对沙丘的影响较其他各特征因子占主导地位,半固定性沙丘和固定性沙丘养分因子占主导地位。     

佛山岭南天地旧改项目中开放空间的特色分析

近年来,国内出现了不少基于城市老街区改造为商业街区的项目。通过对佛山岭南天地项目中有代表性的广场、街道、建筑等节点进行调研,选取开放空间的3个特色要素——空间形态和尺度,传统装饰元素,植物和水景布置,探析"新天地"模式中开放空间营造的特色手法,包括保持街巷形态和宜人尺度,增强街区公共属性;保护传统建筑构件,利用传统材料、技术;保留古树,并结合植物和水景布置,形成多层次的景观系统等。     

论生态景观吸引力空间异化模型的应用——以江苏环太湖国际旅游区规划为例

以江苏环太湖国际旅游区规划为实验对象,重点探讨生态景观吸引力空间异化过程,即从要素磁场分化开始,经由同质景观间的引力异化,导致同类景观片区间的引力空间异化,最终推导出另一种"同质相斥、异质相吸"的新型生态景观吸引力空间结构。     

基于生态可持续的土地利用空间格局分配

土地作为人文社会和自然生态系统之间的重要纽带,土地利用变化成为全球变化研究中的重要部分,研究土地利用的结构优化,对实现土地资源的可持续利用有着重要的意义,是可持续发展的核心问题。笔者采用空间叠加和综合指数的方法,以生态因素作为土地利用空间分配的限制因子,模拟预测了基于生态可持续背景因素下中国土地利用变化未来空间分布格局。结果显示:土地利用数量分配和空间格局两方面具有明显的区域差异性,耕地主要分布在传统农区华中区和华东区,林地则主要分布在西南山区和东北区,草地则集中在西部和北部地区,建设用地主要集中在华东地区;考虑生态可持续因素,并以生态可持续为限制因子进行土地利用空间格局分配时,更加有利于土地利用各个类型的因地制宜和适宜性选择,生态功能区更加突出,分配格局更加合理。